What are the public markets telling us about the supply chain outlook?

Legendary investor Benjamin Graham said, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”

The May BG Strategic Advisors Supply Chain Index just came out. A few important highlights:

1. We are still living through a freight recession. In the last month, the Supply Chain Index (which tracks 9 segments across all areas of supply chain) declined 6.5%, while the S&P 500 dropped 4.0%.

2. The 60 companies comprising the index lost a combined $92 billion of market cap in the month of April

3. While the LTL category was the top performer in 2023, it dropped 18.7% last month

4. There are riches in niches. For the last 12 month the Healthcare Distribution segment grew 33.2%, and the Energy Logistics segment increased 20.9%

As the public markets reflect, we have witnessed a two-year freight recession. Is the end near?

–Benjamin Gordon, Cambridge Capital